Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Nascimento

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

May 11, 2024 Past St. Louis , Missouri , U.S. U S Total Weight 2016.702
Channels Engaged
89
Predictions Logged
796
Value Picks Flagged
254
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 796 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 89 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 254 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.75 Terrance McKinney ROI 1.15x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Esteban Ribovics vs Terrance McKinney 1.15x ROI
Terrance McKinney weighted 1.75 Market 2.37 Crowd 1.65
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Esteban Ribovics vs Terrance McKinney 0.79x ROI
Esteban Ribovics weighted 2.34 Market 1.57 Crowd 2.55
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Charles Johnson vs Jake Hadley 0.84x ROI
Jake Hadley weighted 2.43 Market 1.75 Crowd 2.48
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Veronica Hardy vs JJ Aldrich 0.86x ROI
JJ Aldrich weighted 3.08 Market 2.15 Crowd 3.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 66.7%
Pure crowd 66.7%
Market favourite 58.3%

Derrick Lewis vs Rodrigo Nascimento

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 436.78
ROI Momentum 2.12
Underdog Specialist 5.01
Favorite Reliability 150.62
Weight-Class Ace 41.18
Regional Familiarity 87.75
Value Pick Signal 135.45
Sample Size Confidence 361.8

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.