Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

May 18, 2024 Past Las Vegas, Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 2105.095
Channels Engaged
104
Predictions Logged
830
Value Picks Flagged
212
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 830 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 104 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 212 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.29 Themba Gorimbo ROI 1.2x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Themba Gorimbo vs Ramiz Brahimaj 1.2x ROI
Themba Gorimbo weighted 1.29 Market 1.73 Crowd 1.33
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Angela Hill vs Luana Pinheiro 1.14x ROI
Angela Hill weighted 1.35 Market 1.68 Crowd 1.42
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Themba Gorimbo vs Ramiz Brahimaj 0.75x ROI
Ramiz Brahimaj weighted 4.49 Market 2.1 Crowd 4.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Angela Hill vs Luana Pinheiro 0.81x ROI
Luana Pinheiro weighted 3.83 Market 2.23 Crowd 3.38
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Khaos Williams vs Carlston Harris 0.83x ROI
Carlston Harris weighted 3.27 Market 2.09 Crowd 3.08
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 75.0%
Pure crowd 75.0%
Market favourite 75.0%

Lerone Murphy vs Edson Barboza

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 468.89
ROI Momentum -9.71
Underdog Specialist -0.89
Favorite Reliability 192.6
Weight-Class Ace 27.65
Regional Familiarity 89.25
Value Pick Signal 115.5
Sample Size Confidence 391.8

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.