Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Perez vs. Taira

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Jun 15, 2024 Past Las Vegas, Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 2292.276
Channels Engaged
121
Predictions Logged
1024
Value Picks Flagged
240
Fight Slots
11
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 1024 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 121 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 240 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.86 Douglas Silva de Andrade ROI 1.11x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Miles Johns vs Douglas Silva de Andrade 1.11x ROI
Douglas Silva de Andrade weighted 1.86 Market 2.33 Crowd 1.88
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Miles Johns vs Douglas Silva de Andrade 0.84x ROI
Miles Johns weighted 2.16 Market 1.62 Crowd 2.13
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Josefine Lindgren Knutsson vs Julia Polastri 0.86x ROI
Julia Polastri weighted 3.65 Market 2.42 Crowd 4.56
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Adam Fugitt vs Josh Quinlan 0.86x ROI
Josh Quinlan weighted 2.33 Market 1.77 Crowd 2.52
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 11
Weighted model 63.6%
Pure crowd 63.6%
Market favourite 63.6%

Tatsuro Taira vs Alex Perez

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 472.64
ROI Momentum -5.47
Underdog Specialist -1.43
Favorite Reliability 174.03
Weight-Class Ace 6.16
Regional Familiarity 96.0
Value Pick Signal 133.35
Sample Size Confidence 393.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.