Event Selector

UFC 303: Pereira vs. Procházka 2

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Jun 29, 2024 Past Las Vegas, Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 2624.208
Channels Engaged
174
Predictions Logged
1196
Value Picks Flagged
307
Fight Slots
13
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 1196 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 174 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 307 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 3.06 Carlos Hernandez ROI 1.1x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Rei Tsuruya vs Carlos Hernandez 1.1x ROI
Carlos Hernandez weighted 3.06 Market 4.36 Crowd 3.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Gillian Robertson vs Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0.84x ROI
Gillian Robertson weighted 1.34 Market 1.11 Crowd 1.44
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Rei Tsuruya vs Carlos Hernandez 0.84x ROI
Rei Tsuruya weighted 1.48 Market 1.2 Crowd 1.5
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Vinicius Oliveira vs Ricky Simón 0.88x ROI
Vinicius Oliveira weighted 4.38 Market 2.9 Crowd 4.4
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 13
Weighted model 76.9%
Pure crowd 76.9%
Market favourite 61.5%

Alex Pereira vs Jiří Procházka

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 525.56
ROI Momentum -10.0
Underdog Specialist -6.25
Favorite Reliability 193.38
Weight-Class Ace 11.92
Regional Familiarity 124.05
Value Pick Signal 151.55
Sample Size Confidence 438.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.