Event Selector

UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Jul 27, 2024 Past Manchester, England , UK United Kingdom Total Weight 3204.132
Channels Engaged
166
Predictions Logged
1429
Value Picks Flagged
351
Fight Slots
14
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 1429 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 166 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 351 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.62 Preston Parsons ROI 1.55x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Oban Elliott vs Preston Parsons 1.55x ROI
Preston Parsons weighted 1.62 Market 13.83 Crowd 1.5
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Nathaniel Wood vs Daniel Pineda 1.1x ROI
Nathaniel Wood weighted 1.09 Market 1.23 Crowd 1.1
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Oban Elliott vs Preston Parsons 0.41x ROI
Oban Elliott weighted 2.62 Market 1.03 Crowd 3.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Nathaniel Wood vs Daniel Pineda 0.85x ROI
Daniel Pineda weighted 12.46 Market 4.3 Crowd 11.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Arnold Allen vs Giga Chikadze 0.89x ROI
Giga Chikadze weighted 4.56 Market 3.02 Crowd 4.37
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 14
Weighted model 71.4%
Pure crowd 71.4%
Market favourite 64.3%

Belal Muhammad vs Leon Edwards

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 631.25
ROI Momentum 4.71
Underdog Specialist 4.17
Favorite Reliability 240.22
Weight-Class Ace 32.98
Regional Familiarity 149.85
Value Pick Signal 189.35
Sample Size Confidence 522.6

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.