Event Selector

UFC on ABC: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Aug 03, 2024 Past Abu Dhabi , United Arab Emirates United Arab Emirates Total Weight 2638.175
Channels Engaged
149
Predictions Logged
1204
Value Picks Flagged
332
Fight Slots
13
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 1204 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 149 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 332 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.07 Sedriques Dumas ROI 1.23x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Sedriques Dumas vs Denis Tiuliulin 1.23x ROI
Sedriques Dumas weighted 1.07 Market 1.42 Crowd 1.1
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Sam Hughes vs Victoria Dudakova 1.17x ROI
Victoria Dudakova weighted 1.23 Market 1.55 Crowd 1.31
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Sedriques Dumas vs Denis Tiuliulin 0.72x ROI
Denis Tiuliulin weighted 15.54 Market 2.88 Crowd 11.5
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Sam Hughes vs Victoria Dudakova 0.77x ROI
Sam Hughes weighted 5.38 Market 2.41 Crowd 4.27
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Umar Nurmagomedov vs Cory Sandhagen 0.82x ROI
Umar Nurmagomedov weighted 1.67 Market 1.29 Crowd 1.83
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 13
Weighted model 84.6%
Pure crowd 84.6%
Market favourite 84.6%

Umar Nurmagomedov vs Cory Sandhagen

Market Snapshot

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Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 490.99
ROI Momentum -1.86
Underdog Specialist -2.1
Favorite Reliability 198.53
Weight-Class Ace 64.17
Regional Familiarity 119.7
Value Pick Signal 162.75
Sample Size Confidence 402.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.