Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Borralho

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Aug 24, 2024 Past Total Weight 483.91
Channels Engaged
20
Predictions Logged
171
Value Picks Flagged
43
Fight Slots
11
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 171 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 20 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 43 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Kaan Ofli ROI 1.62x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Mairon Santos vs Kaan Ofli 1.62x ROI
Kaan Ofli weighted 1.0 Market 2.64 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Jacqueline Cavalcanti vs Josiane Nunes 1.21x ROI
Josiane Nunes weighted 1.91 Market 3.18 Crowd 1.8
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Mairon Santos vs Kaan Ofli 0.32x ROI
Mairon Santos weighted — Market 1.47 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Jacqueline Cavalcanti vs Josiane Nunes 0.73x ROI
Jacqueline Cavalcanti weighted 2.1 Market 1.34 Crowd 2.25
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Viacheslav Borshchev vs James Llontop 0.75x ROI
Viacheslav Borshchev weighted 2.14 Market 1.4 Crowd 2.25
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 11
Weighted model 54.5%
Pure crowd 54.5%
Market favourite 81.8%

Francis Marshall vs Dennis Buzukja

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 123.09
ROI Momentum 3.98
Underdog Specialist 0.32
Favorite Reliability 51.84
Weight-Class Ace 16.48
Value Pick Signal 18.2
Sample Size Confidence 99.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.