Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Sep 07, 2024 Past — — Total Weight 663.289
Channels Engaged
26
Predictions Logged
231
Value Picks Flagged
68
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 231 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 26 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 68 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.06 Andre Petroski ROI 1.18x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Andre Petroski vs Dylan Budka 1.18x ROI
Andre Petroski weighted 1.06 Market 1.31 Crowd 1.08
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Andre Petroski vs Dylan Budka 0.76x ROI
Dylan Budka weighted 17.37 Market 3.35 Crowd 14.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Cody Durden vs Matt Schnell 0.8x ROI
Matt Schnell weighted 3.89 Market 2.21 Crowd 4.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Nathan Fletcher vs Žygimantas Ramaška 0.81x ROI
Žygimantas Ramaška weighted 3.46 Market 2.09 Crowd 3.25
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 83.3%
Pure crowd 83.3%
Market favourite 83.3%

Chris Padilla vs Rong Zhu

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 159.19
ROI Momentum 4.04
Underdog Specialist 0.55
Favorite Reliability 68.92
Weight-Class Ace 10.04
Regional Familiarity 26.85
Value Pick Signal 34.3
Sample Size Confidence 128.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.