Event Selector

UFC 306: O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Sep 14, 2024 Past Las Vegas, Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 802.669
Channels Engaged
30
Predictions Logged
274
Value Picks Flagged
70
Fight Slots
10
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 274 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 30 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 70 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.16 Ronaldo Rodríguez ROI 1.23x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Ronaldo Rodríguez vs Ode' Osbourne 1.23x ROI
Ronaldo Rodríguez weighted 1.16 Market 1.57 Crowd 1.21
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Valentina Shevchenko vs Alexa Grasso 1.2x ROI
Alexa Grasso weighted 1.29 Market 1.76 Crowd 1.36
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Ronaldo Rodríguez vs Ode' Osbourne 0.73x ROI
Ode' Osbourne weighted 7.24 Market 2.44 Crowd 5.67
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Valentina Shevchenko vs Alexa Grasso 0.75x ROI
Valentina Shevchenko weighted 4.4 Market 2.11 Crowd 3.8
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Merab Dvalishvili vs Sean O'Malley 0.86x ROI
Merab Dvalishvili weighted 2.53 Market 1.86 Crowd 2.43
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 10
Weighted model 40.0%
Pure crowd 50.0%
Market favourite 60.0%

Merab Dvalishvili vs Sean O'Malley

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 192.23
ROI Momentum 1.68
Underdog Specialist 0.25
Favorite Reliability 90.14
Weight-Class Ace 17.81
Regional Familiarity 32.85
Value Pick Signal 37.1
Sample Size Confidence 156.6

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.