Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Sep 28, 2024 Past Paris , France France Total Weight 953.7
Channels Engaged
26
Predictions Logged
325
Value Picks Flagged
88
Fight Slots
14
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 325 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 26 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 88 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.65 Nora Cornolle ROI 1.24x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Jacqueline Cavalcanti vs Nora Cornolle 1.24x ROI
Nora Cornolle weighted 1.65 Market 2.72 Crowd 1.5
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
William Gomis vs Joanderson Brito 1.15x ROI
William Gomis weighted 2.29 Market 3.49 Crowd 2.17
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Taylor Lapilus vs Vince Morales 1.15x ROI
Taylor Lapilus weighted 1.07 Market 1.27 Crowd 1.08
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Jacqueline Cavalcanti vs Nora Cornolle 0.71x ROI
Jacqueline Cavalcanti weighted 2.55 Market 1.47 Crowd 3.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
William Gomis vs Joanderson Brito 0.8x ROI
Joanderson Brito weighted 1.77 Market 1.32 Crowd 1.86
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Taylor Lapilus vs Vince Morales 0.81x ROI
Vince Morales weighted 15.11 Market 3.84 Crowd 13.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 14
Weighted model 50.0%
Pure crowd 50.0%
Market favourite 64.3%

Renato Moicano vs Benoît Saint Denis

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 231.0
ROI Momentum 5.01
Underdog Specialist 1.64
Favorite Reliability 88.47
Weight-Class Ace 34.03
Regional Familiarity 38.55
Value Pick Signal 43.4
Sample Size Confidence 186.6

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.