Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Sep 28, 2024 Past Paris , France France Total Weight 1125.649
Channels Engaged
40
Predictions Logged
393
Value Picks Flagged
105
Fight Slots
14
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 393 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 40 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 105 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.8 Nora Cornolle ROI 1.19x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Jacqueline Cavalcanti vs Nora Cornolle 1.19x ROI
Nora Cornolle weighted 1.8 Market 2.72 Crowd 1.67
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Jacqueline Cavalcanti vs Nora Cornolle 0.76x ROI
Jacqueline Cavalcanti weighted 2.26 Market 1.47 Crowd 2.5
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Ailín Pérez vs Darya Zheleznyakova 0.8x ROI
Darya Zheleznyakova weighted 6.32 Market 2.76 Crowd 6.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Renato Moicano vs Benoît Saint Denis 0.8x ROI
Benoît Saint Denis weighted 1.85 Market 1.36 Crowd 2.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 14
Weighted model 42.9%
Pure crowd 50.0%
Market favourite 64.3%

Renato Moicano vs Benoît Saint Denis

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 269.38
ROI Momentum 3.72
Underdog Specialist 1.4
Favorite Reliability 103.14
Weight-Class Ace 39.06
Regional Familiarity 47.25
Value Pick Signal 49.7
Sample Size Confidence 219.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.