Event Selector

UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Oct 05, 2024 Past Salt Lake City, Utah , U.S. U S Total Weight 885.23
Channels Engaged
30
Predictions Logged
312
Value Picks Flagged
92
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 312 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 30 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 92 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.13 Joaquin Buckley ROI 1.18x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Joaquin Buckley vs Stephen Thompson 1.18x ROI
Joaquin Buckley weighted 1.13 Market 1.43 Crowd 1.13
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Joaquin Buckley vs Stephen Thompson 0.75x ROI
Stephen Thompson weighted 8.64 Market 2.75 Crowd 8.5
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Mario Bautista vs José Aldo 0.78x ROI
Mario Bautista weighted 2.85 Market 1.75 Crowd 3.12
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Tecia Pennington vs Carla Esparza 0.79x ROI
Carla Esparza weighted 5.49 Market 2.54 Crowd 4.5
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 66.7%
Pure crowd 66.7%
Market favourite 75.0%

Alex Pereira vs Khalil Rountree Jr.

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 216.26
ROI Momentum 1.96
Underdog Specialist -0.53
Favorite Reliability 90.2
Weight-Class Ace 12.54
Regional Familiarity 36.15
Value Pick Signal 40.25
Sample Size Confidence 176.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.