Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Oct 12, 2024 Past Total Weight 1301.739
Channels Engaged
93
Predictions Logged
607
Value Picks Flagged
146
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 607 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 93 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 146 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.24 Chidi Njokuani ROI 1.2x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Chidi Njokuani vs Jared Gooden 1.2x ROI
Chidi Njokuani weighted 1.24 Market 1.66 Crowd 1.25
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Brandon Royval vs Tatsuro Taira 1.17x ROI
Brandon Royval weighted 2.14 Market 3.33 Crowd 2.11
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Chidi Njokuani vs Jared Gooden 0.75x ROI
Jared Gooden weighted 5.18 Market 2.27 Crowd 5.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Brandon Royval vs Tatsuro Taira 0.77x ROI
Tatsuro Taira weighted 1.88 Market 1.31 Crowd 1.9
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Cody Haddon vs Daniel Argueta 0.8x ROI
Daniel Argueta weighted 4.56 Market 2.4 Crowd 4.14
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 83.3%
Pure crowd 75.0%
Market favourite 75.0%

Brandon Royval vs Tatsuro Taira

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 279.11
ROI Momentum -8.21
Underdog Specialist -3.24
Favorite Reliability 112.65
Weight-Class Ace 17.64
Value Pick Signal 65.8
Sample Size Confidence 231.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.