Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Oct 19, 2024 Past Las Vegas, Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 1778.218
Channels Engaged
109
Predictions Logged
814
Value Picks Flagged
223
Fight Slots
11
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 814 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 109 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 223 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.03 Charles Johnson ROI 1.23x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Charles Johnson vs Su Mudaerji 1.23x ROI
Charles Johnson weighted 1.03 Market 1.35 Crowd 1.03
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Joselyne Edwards vs Tamires Vidal 1.21x ROI
Joselyne Edwards weighted 1.07 Market 1.39 Crowd 1.08
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Charles Johnson vs Su Mudaerji 0.71x ROI
Su Mudaerji weighted 37.69 Market 3.13 Crowd 41.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Joselyne Edwards vs Tamires Vidal 0.74x ROI
Tamires Vidal weighted 15.24 Market 3.07 Crowd 13.33
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Elise Reed vs Jessica Penne 0.81x ROI
Jessica Penne weighted 4.77 Market 2.5 Crowd 4.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 11
Weighted model 63.6%
Pure crowd 63.6%
Market favourite 72.7%

Anthony Hernandez vs Michel Pereira

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 333.94
ROI Momentum -1.45
Underdog Specialist 1.72
Favorite Reliability 142.0
Weight-Class Ace 21.56
Regional Familiarity 75.15
Value Pick Signal 114.1
Sample Size Confidence 277.2

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.