Event Selector

UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Oct 26, 2024 Past Abu Dhabi , United Arab Emirates United Arab Emirates Total Weight 3421.069
Channels Engaged
411
Predictions Logged
1924
Value Picks Flagged
382
Fight Slots
13
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 1924 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 411 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 382 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.78 Robert Whittaker ROI 1.21x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Khamzat Chimaev vs Robert Whittaker 1.21x ROI
Robert Whittaker weighted 1.78 Market 2.87 Crowd 1.72
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Khamzat Chimaev vs Robert Whittaker 0.73x ROI
Khamzat Chimaev weighted 2.28 Market 1.42 Crowd 2.39
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Ibo Aslan vs Raffael Cerqueira 0.77x ROI
Raffael Cerqueira weighted 3.14 Market 1.83 Crowd 3.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Rinat Fakhretdinov vs Carlos Leal 0.77x ROI
Carlos Leal weighted 8.14 Market 2.87 Crowd 9.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 13
Weighted model 84.6%
Pure crowd 84.6%
Market favourite 84.6%

Ilia Topuria vs Max Holloway

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 485.25
ROI Momentum -4.16
Underdog Specialist -2.55
Favorite Reliability 201.3
Weight-Class Ace 52.38
Regional Familiarity 168.6
Value Pick Signal 194.25
Sample Size Confidence 402.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.