Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Nov 23, 2024 Past Macau SAR , China China Total Weight 1823.825
Channels Engaged
170
Predictions Logged
884
Value Picks Flagged
213
Fight Slots
13
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 884 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 170 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 213 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge — Waiting for openings
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
No positive edges detected.
Market Heat
Gabriella Fernandes vs Wang Cong 0.84x ROI
Wang Cong weighted 1.32 Market 1.09 Crowd 1.31
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Zhang Mingyang vs Ozzy Diaz 0.86x ROI
Ozzy Diaz weighted 7.14 Market 3.59 Crowd 7.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Carlos Ulberg vs Volkan Oezdemir 0.86x ROI
Carlos Ulberg weighted 1.33 Market 1.13 Crowd 1.4
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 13
Weighted model 76.9%
Pure crowd 76.9%
Market favourite 46.2%

Petr Yan vs Deiveson Figueiredo

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 346.94
ROI Momentum -0.96
Underdog Specialist -0.34
Favorite Reliability 115.3
Weight-Class Ace 10.84
Regional Familiarity 81.75
Value Pick Signal 100.1
Sample Size Confidence 286.2

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.