Event Selector

UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Dec 07, 2024 Past Las Vegas, Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 2274.594
Channels Engaged
130
Predictions Logged
1099
Value Picks Flagged
242
Fight Slots
14
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 1099 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 130 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 242 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 2.23 Max Griffin ROI 1.29x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Michael Chiesa vs Max Griffin 1.29x ROI
Max Griffin weighted 2.23 Market 6.2 Crowd 1.95
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Michael Chiesa vs Max Griffin 0.66x ROI
Michael Chiesa weighted 1.81 Market 1.12 Crowd 2.05
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Eryk Anders vs Chris Weidman 0.89x ROI
Chris Weidman weighted 2.36 Market 1.88 Crowd 2.23
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Łukasz Brzeski 0.9x ROI
Łukasz Brzeski weighted 9.53 Market 4.89 Crowd 5.6
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 14
Weighted model 85.7%
Pure crowd 78.6%
Market favourite 71.4%

Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Asakura

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 418.96
ROI Momentum -1.37
Underdog Specialist 0.31
Favorite Reliability 170.69
Weight-Class Ace 13.45
Regional Familiarity 100.2
Value Pick Signal 127.75
Sample Size Confidence 345.6

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.