Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Jan 11, 2025 Past Las Vegas, Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 2795.018
Channels Engaged
158
Predictions Logged
1222
Value Picks Flagged
367
Fight Slots
14
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 1222 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 158 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 367 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.44 Santiago Ponzinibbio ROI 1.12x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Carlston Harris 1.12x ROI
Santiago Ponzinibbio weighted 1.44 Market 1.72 Crowd 1.44
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Carlston Harris 0.84x ROI
Carlston Harris weighted 3.29 Market 2.14 Crowd 3.25
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Fatima Kline vs Victoria Dudakova 0.88x ROI
Fatima Kline weighted 1.28 Market 1.11 Crowd 1.38
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Nurullo Aliev vs Joe Solecki 0.88x ROI
Joe Solecki weighted 18.96 Market 5.67 Crowd 16.67
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 14
Weighted model 64.3%
Pure crowd 64.3%
Market favourite 64.3%

Mackenzie Dern vs Amanda Ribas

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 559.79
ROI Momentum -10.56
Underdog Specialist -4.68
Favorite Reliability 238.91
Weight-Class Ace 49.95
Regional Familiarity 110.55
Value Pick Signal 167.65
Sample Size Confidence 461.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.