Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Mar 01, 2025 Past — — Total Weight 1921.261
Channels Engaged
128
Predictions Logged
874
Value Picks Flagged
255
Fight Slots
10
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 874 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 128 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 255 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.29 Cody Brundage ROI 1.23x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Cody Brundage vs Julian Marquez 1.23x ROI
Cody Brundage weighted 1.29 Market 1.85 Crowd 1.24
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Mário Pinto vs Austen Lane 1.19x ROI
Mário Pinto weighted 1.17 Market 1.51 Crowd 1.2
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Cody Brundage vs Julian Marquez 0.72x ROI
Julian Marquez weighted 4.41 Market 1.98 Crowd 5.18
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Mário Pinto vs Austen Lane 0.75x ROI
Austen Lane weighted 6.96 Market 2.51 Crowd 6.11
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Ramazan Temirov vs Charles Johnson 0.78x ROI
Ramazan Temirov weighted 3.92 Market 2.12 Crowd 3.79
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 10
Weighted model 60.0%
Pure crowd 60.0%
Market favourite 60.0%

Manel Kape vs Asu Almabayev

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 369.72
ROI Momentum -3.77
Underdog Specialist 1.31
Favorite Reliability 163.93
Weight-Class Ace 20.27
Regional Familiarity 71.85
Value Pick Signal 117.95
Sample Size Confidence 306.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.