Event Selector

UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Mar 08, 2025 Past 18,869 869 Total Weight 2959.463
Channels Engaged
364
Predictions Logged
1554
Value Picks Flagged
351
Fight Slots
10
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 1554 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 364 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 351 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.18 Joshua Van ROI 1.24x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Joshua Van vs Rei Tsuruya 1.24x ROI
Joshua Van weighted 1.18 Market 1.63 Crowd 1.19
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Justin Gaethje vs Rafael Fiziev 1.16x ROI
Justin Gaethje weighted 1.66 Market 2.25 Crowd 1.56
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Brunno Ferreira vs Armen Petrosyan 1.13x ROI
Brunno Ferreira weighted 1.66 Market 2.12 Crowd 1.61
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Joshua Van vs Rei Tsuruya 0.71x ROI
Rei Tsuruya weighted 6.59 Market 2.26 Crowd 6.33
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Justin Gaethje vs Rafael Fiziev 0.79x ROI
Rafael Fiziev weighted 2.51 Market 1.66 Crowd 2.8
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Brunno Ferreira vs Armen Petrosyan 0.81x ROI
Armen Petrosyan weighted 2.52 Market 1.72 Crowd 2.64
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 10
Weighted model 70.0%
Pure crowd 70.0%
Market favourite 50.0%

Magomed Ankalaev vs Alex Pereira

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 454.06
ROI Momentum -2.49
Underdog Specialist 3.02
Favorite Reliability 178.19
Weight-Class Ace 64.84
Regional Familiarity 151.95
Value Pick Signal 178.5
Sample Size Confidence 377.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.