Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Moreno vs. Erceg

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Mar 29, 2025 Past Mexico City , Mexico Mexico Total Weight 2217.895
Channels Engaged
159
Predictions Logged
1048
Value Picks Flagged
229
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 1048 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 159 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 229 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.41 Manuel Torres ROI 1.14x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Manuel Torres vs Drew Dober 1.14x ROI
Manuel Torres weighted 1.41 Market 1.76 Crowd 1.47
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Brandon Moreno vs Steve Erceg 1.08x ROI
Brandon Moreno weighted 1.24 Market 1.38 Crowd 1.24
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Manuel Torres vs Drew Dober 0.8x ROI
Drew Dober weighted 3.42 Market 2.02 Crowd 3.11
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Brandon Moreno vs Steve Erceg 0.87x ROI
Steve Erceg weighted 5.25 Market 3.09 Crowd 5.17
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Kevin Borjas vs Ronaldo Rodríguez 0.89x ROI
Kevin Borjas weighted 3.06 Market 2.29 Crowd 3.11
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 83.3%
Pure crowd 83.3%
Market favourite 75.0%

Brandon Moreno vs Steve Erceg

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 414.88
ROI Momentum -4.17
Underdog Specialist -0.78
Favorite Reliability 176.06
Weight-Class Ace 33.71
Regional Familiarity 92.25
Value Pick Signal 116.55
Sample Size Confidence 341.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.