Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Emmett vs. Murphy

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Apr 05, 2025 Past Las Vegas, Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 2269.225
Channels Engaged
145
Predictions Logged
1055
Value Picks Flagged
285
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 1055 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 145 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 285 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.35 Vanessa Demopoulos ROI 1.23x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Talita Alencar vs Vanessa Demopoulos 1.23x ROI
Vanessa Demopoulos weighted 1.35 Market 1.94 Crowd 1.35
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Martin Buday vs Uran Satybaldiev 1.22x ROI
Martin Buday weighted 1.18 Market 1.6 Crowd 1.21
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Martin Buday vs Uran Satybaldiev 0.72x ROI
Uran Satybaldiev weighted 6.48 Market 2.31 Crowd 5.67
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Talita Alencar vs Vanessa Demopoulos 0.72x ROI
Talita Alencar weighted 3.88 Market 1.87 Crowd 3.82
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Loma Lookboonmee vs Istela Nunes 0.82x ROI
Istela Nunes weighted 10.52 Market 3.57 Crowd 10.5
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 66.7%
Pure crowd 66.7%
Market favourite 66.7%

Lerone Murphy vs Josh Emmett

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 420.36
ROI Momentum -6.36
Underdog Specialist 1.22
Favorite Reliability 179.12
Weight-Class Ace 33.19
Regional Familiarity 89.55
Value Pick Signal 147.35
Sample Size Confidence 349.8

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.