Event Selector

UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Apr 12, 2025 Past Miami, Florida , U.S. U S Total Weight 4503.689
Channels Engaged
478
Predictions Logged
2738
Value Picks Flagged
523
Fight Slots
13
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 2738 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 478 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 523 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.73 Mitch Raposo ROI 1.13x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Su Mudaerji vs Mitch Raposo 1.13x ROI
Mitch Raposo weighted 1.73 Market 2.25 Crowd 1.61
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Dominick Reyes vs Nikita Krylov 1.09x ROI
Dominick Reyes weighted 1.92 Market 2.34 Crowd 1.79
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Su Mudaerji vs Mitch Raposo 0.82x ROI
Su Mudaerji weighted 2.37 Market 1.66 Crowd 2.64
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Michał Oleksiejczuk vs Sedriques Dumas 0.86x ROI
Michał Oleksiejczuk weighted 1.54 Market 1.26 Crowd 1.62
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Dominick Reyes vs Nikita Krylov 0.86x ROI
Nikita Krylov weighted 2.09 Market 1.61 Crowd 2.27
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 13
Weighted model 84.6%
Pure crowd 84.6%
Market favourite 84.6%

Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 560.08
ROI Momentum -12.7
Underdog Specialist -8.9
Favorite Reliability 226.14
Weight-Class Ace 43.87
Regional Familiarity 205.05
Value Pick Signal 285.95
Sample Size Confidence 466.2

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.