Event Selector

UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

May 10, 2025 Past Montreal , Quebec , Canada Canada Total Weight 3696.155
Channels Engaged
370
Predictions Logged
1974
Value Picks Flagged
490
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 1974 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 370 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 490 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.51 Valentina Shevchenko ROI 1.18x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Valentina Shevchenko vs Manon Fiorot 1.18x ROI
Valentina Shevchenko weighted 1.51 Market 2.1 Crowd 1.41
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Valentina Shevchenko vs Manon Fiorot 0.77x ROI
Manon Fiorot weighted 2.94 Market 1.76 Crowd 3.43
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Jasmine Jasudavicius vs Jéssica Andrade 0.83x ROI
Jasmine Jasudavicius weighted 1.69 Market 1.31 Crowd 1.82
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Mike Malott vs Charles Radtke 0.87x ROI
Mike Malott weighted 1.81 Market 1.46 Crowd 1.76
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 75.0%
Pure crowd 83.3%
Market favourite 58.3%

Jack Della Maddalena vs Belal Muhammad

Market Snapshot

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Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 607.06
ROI Momentum -16.79
Underdog Specialist -5.25
Favorite Reliability 216.97
Weight-Class Ace 18.07
Regional Familiarity 170.55
Value Pick Signal 225.75
Sample Size Confidence 505.8

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.