Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

May 17, 2025 Past Total Weight 2265.436
Channels Engaged
168
Predictions Logged
1200
Value Picks Flagged
278
Fight Slots
13
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 1200 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 168 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 278 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Yadier del Valle ROI 1.14x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Yadier del Valle vs Connor Matthews 1.14x ROI
Yadier del Valle weighted 1.0 Market 1.16 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Luana Santos vs Tainara Lisboa 1.13x ROI
Tainara Lisboa weighted 1.83 Market 2.42 Crowd 2.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Yadier del Valle vs Connor Matthews 0.81x ROI
Connor Matthews weighted — Market 5.16 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Luana Santos vs Tainara Lisboa 0.82x ROI
Luana Santos weighted 2.21 Market 1.57 Crowd 2.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Mairon Santos vs Sodiq Yusuff 0.86x ROI
Mairon Santos weighted 2.07 Market 1.62 Crowd 2.07
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 11
Weighted model 72.7%
Pure crowd 81.8%
Market favourite 81.8%

Gabriel Green vs Matheus Camilo

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 414.85
ROI Momentum -5.88
Underdog Specialist 0.3
Favorite Reliability 135.62
Weight-Class Ace 39.35
Value Pick Signal 138.6
Sample Size Confidence 342.6

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.