Event Selector

UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Jul 19, 2025 Past New Orleans , Louisiana , U.S. U S Total Weight 5864.228
Channels Engaged
421
Predictions Logged
2955
Value Picks Flagged
565
Fight Slots
17
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 2955 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 421 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 565 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.34 Neil Magny ROI 1.47x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Neil Magny vs Gunnar Nelson 1.47x ROI
Neil Magny weighted 1.34 Market 3.63 Crowd 1.27
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Francisco Prado vs Nikolay Veretennikov 1.22x ROI
Francisco Prado weighted 1.25 Market 1.72 Crowd 1.26
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Amanda Ribas vs Tabatha Ricci 0.4x ROI
Amanda Ribas weighted — Market 1.68 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Neil Magny vs Gunnar Nelson 0.48x ROI
Gunnar Nelson weighted 3.94 Market 1.29 Crowd 4.75
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Amanda Ribas vs Tabatha Ricci 0.54x ROI
Tabatha Ricci weighted — Market 2.15 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 14
Weighted model 64.3%
Pure crowd 64.3%
Market favourite 64.3%

Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 984.18
ROI Momentum -37.1
Underdog Specialist -5.64
Favorite Reliability 434.9
Weight-Class Ace 139.39
Regional Familiarity 245.55
Value Pick Signal 322.35
Sample Size Confidence 825.6

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.