Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

May 02, 2026 Scheduled Perth , Australia Australia Total Weight 201.206
Channels Engaged
30
Predictions Logged
89
Value Picks Flagged
4
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 89 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 30 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 4 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Louie Sutherland ROI 1.57x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Tai Tuivasa vs Louie Sutherland 1.57x ROI
Louie Sutherland weighted 1.0 Market 2.35 Crowd 1.0
EU, US Sample 2
Shamil Gaziev vs Brando Peričić 1.41x ROI
Brando Peričić weighted 1.0 Market 1.69 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Tai Tuivasa vs Louie Sutherland 0.39x ROI
Tai Tuivasa weighted — Market 1.65 Crowd —
EU, US Sample 2
Shamil Gaziev vs Brando Peričić 0.54x ROI
Shamil Gaziev weighted — Market 2.19 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Tim Elliott vs Steve Erceg 0.62x ROI
Steve Erceg weighted 2.33 Market 1.24 Crowd 2.5
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Jack Della Maddalena vs Carlos Prates

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 44.5
ROI Momentum -1.76
Underdog Specialist -1.3
Favorite Reliability 19.84
Weight-Class Ace 5.82
Regional Familiarity 6.75
Value Pick Signal 1.75
Sample Size Confidence 36.6

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.