Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Apr 04, 2026 Scheduled Las Vegas , Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 118.329
Channels Engaged
9
Predictions Logged
61
Value Picks Flagged
1
Fight Slots
13
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 61 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 9 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 1 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Guilherme Pat ROI 1.45x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Guilherme Pat vs Thomas Petersen 1.45x ROI
Guilherme Pat weighted 1.0 Market 1.83 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Ethyn Ewing vs Rafael Estevam 1.42x ROI
Rafael Estevam weighted 1.14 Market 2.18 Crowd 1.25
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Guilherme Pat vs Thomas Petersen 0.49x ROI
Thomas Petersen weighted — Market 1.97 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Ethyn Ewing vs Rafael Estevam 0.53x ROI
Ethyn Ewing weighted 8.32 Market 1.68 Crowd 5.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Lando Vannata vs Darrius Flowers 0.64x ROI
Darrius Flowers weighted — Market 2.81 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Renato Moicano vs Chris Duncan

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 22.38
ROI Momentum -0.34
Underdog Specialist 0.17
Favorite Reliability 11.61
Weight-Class Ace 2.6
Regional Familiarity 2.55
Value Pick Signal 0.35
Sample Size Confidence 18.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.