Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Mar 28, 2026 Past Seattle, Washington , U.S. U S Total Weight 4498.238
Channels Engaged
352
Predictions Logged
2276
Value Picks Flagged
278
Fight Slots
14
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 2276 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 352 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 278 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.08 Ignacio Bahamondes ROI 1.16x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Ignacio Bahamondes vs Tofiq Musayev 1.16x ROI
Ignacio Bahamondes weighted 1.08 Market 1.32 Crowd 1.13
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Zhu Kangjie vs Márcio Barbosa 0.26x ROI
Zhu Kangjie weighted 3.48 Market 0.97 Crowd 2.33
Regions — Sample —
Zhu Kangjie vs Márcio Barbosa 0.68x ROI
Márcio Barbosa weighted 1.4 Market 0.97 Crowd 1.75
Regions — Sample —
Ignacio Bahamondes vs Tofiq Musayev 0.79x ROI
Tofiq Musayev weighted 13.19 Market 3.49 Crowd 8.77
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 58.3%
Pure crowd 58.3%
Market favourite 58.3%

Israel Adesanya vs Joe Pyfer

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 861.14
ROI Momentum -40.96
Underdog Specialist 3.97
Favorite Reliability 368.8
Weight-Class Ace 88.84
Regional Familiarity 103.95
Value Pick Signal 114.1
Sample Size Confidence 722.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.