Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Mar 14, 2026 Past Las Vegas , Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 1056.918
Channels Engaged
75
Predictions Logged
533
Value Picks Flagged
299
Fight Slots
15
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 533 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 75 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 299 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.42 Chris Curtis ROI 1.45x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Chris Curtis vs Myktybek Orolbai 1.45x ROI
Chris Curtis weighted 1.42 Market 3.93 Crowd 1.39
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Elijah Smith vs You Su-young 1.26x ROI
Elijah Smith weighted 1.0 Market 1.36 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Chris Curtis vs Myktybek Orolbai 0.5x ROI
Myktybek Orolbai weighted 3.4 Market 1.25 Crowd 3.57
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Elijah Smith vs You Su-young 0.69x ROI
You Su-young weighted — Market 3.21 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Beatriz Mesquita vs Montserrat Rendon 0.75x ROI
Beatriz Mesquita weighted 1.57 Market 1.13 Crowd 1.78
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 14
Weighted model 85.7%
Pure crowd 85.7%
Market favourite 85.7%

Josh Emmett vs Kevin Vallejos

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 169.35
ROI Momentum -6.05
Underdog Specialist -1.91
Favorite Reliability 69.61
Weight-Class Ace 11.21
Regional Familiarity 13.05
Value Pick Signal 131.25
Sample Size Confidence 137.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.