Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Feb 28, 2026 Past Mexico City , Mexico Mexico Total Weight 4557.696
Channels Engaged
248
Predictions Logged
2231
Value Picks Flagged
285
Fight Slots
17
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 2231 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 248 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 285 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Regina Tarin ROI 1.57x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Regina Tarin vs Ernesta KareckaitÄ— 1.57x ROI
Regina Tarin weighted 1.0 Market 2.31 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Imanol Rodríguez vs Kevin Borjas 1.17x ROI
Imanol Rodríguez weighted 1.0 Market 1.21 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Regina Tarin vs Ernesta KareckaitÄ— 0.38x ROI
Ernesta Kareckaitė weighted — Market 1.62 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Imanol Rodríguez vs Kevin Borjas 0.77x ROI
Kevin Borjas weighted — Market 4.38 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Édgar Cháirez vs Felipe Bunes 0.8x ROI
Felipe Bunes weighted 11.01 Market 3.47 Crowd 10.36
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 14
Weighted model 78.6%
Pure crowd 78.6%
Market favourite 64.3%

Brandon Moreno vs Lone'er Kavanagh

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 894.85
ROI Momentum -40.71
Underdog Specialist -3.81
Favorite Reliability 423.13
Weight-Class Ace 57.13
Regional Familiarity 123.15
Value Pick Signal 123.55
Sample Size Confidence 749.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.