Event Selector

UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Dec 06, 2025 Past Las Vegas , Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 6869.524
Channels Engaged
463
Predictions Logged
4006
Value Picks Flagged
332
Fight Slots
14
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 4006 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 463 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 332 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 2.22 Manuel Torres ROI 1.12x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Grant Dawson vs Manuel Torres 1.12x ROI
Manuel Torres weighted 2.22 Market 3.02 Crowd 2.18
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Grant Dawson vs Manuel Torres 0.83x ROI
Grant Dawson weighted 1.82 Market 1.4 Crowd 1.85
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Nazim Sadykhov vs Farès Ziam 0.86x ROI
Farès Ziam weighted 1.85 Market 1.47 Crowd 1.92
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Terrance McKinney vs Chris Duncan 0.88x ROI
Terrance McKinney weighted 2.53 Market 1.93 Crowd 2.49
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 13
Weighted model 69.2%
Pure crowd 69.2%
Market favourite 69.2%

Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 1046.94
ROI Momentum -30.6
Underdog Specialist -0.73
Favorite Reliability 462.04
Weight-Class Ace 88.62
Regional Familiarity 281.25
Value Pick Signal 135.8
Sample Size Confidence 880.2

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.