Event Selector

UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Nov 15, 2025 Past New York City, New York , U.S. U S Total Weight 5700.866
Channels Engaged
473
Predictions Logged
3312
Value Picks Flagged
274
Fight Slots
16
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 3312 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 473 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 274 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Ethyn Ewing ROI 1.79x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Malcolm Wellmaker vs Ethyn Ewing 1.79x ROI
Ethyn Ewing weighted 1.0 Market 4.7 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Malcolm Wellmaker vs Ethyn Ewing 0.15x ROI
Malcolm Wellmaker weighted — Market 1.18 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Beneil Dariush vs Benoît Saint Denis 0.34x ROI
Benoît Saint Denis weighted — Market 1.51 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Beneil Dariush vs Benoît Saint Denis 0.61x ROI
Beneil Dariush weighted — Market 2.58 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 13
Weighted model 76.9%
Pure crowd 76.9%
Market favourite 84.6%

Jack Della Maddalena vs Islam Makhachev

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 867.56
ROI Momentum -23.39
Underdog Specialist -6.74
Favorite Reliability 354.89
Weight-Class Ace 109.15
Regional Familiarity 247.2
Value Pick Signal 110.6
Sample Size Confidence 729.6

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.