Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Nov 01, 2025 Past Las Vegas , Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 987.706
Channels Engaged
40
Predictions Logged
413
Value Picks Flagged
41
Fight Slots
14
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 413 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 40 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 41 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Cody Durden ROI 1.65x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Allan Nascimento vs Cody Durden 1.65x ROI
Cody Durden weighted 1.0 Market 2.87 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, US Sample 3
Steve Garcia vs David Onama 1.3x ROI
Steve Garcia weighted 1.14 Market 1.74 Crowd 1.16
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Allan Nascimento vs Cody Durden 0.31x ROI
Allan Nascimento weighted — Market 1.44 Crowd —
AU, EU, US Sample 3
Steve Garcia vs David Onama 0.65x ROI
David Onama weighted 7.97 Market 2.1 Crowd 7.25
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Charles Radtke vs Daniel Frunza 0.73x ROI
Daniel Frunza weighted 5.64 Market 2.25 Crowd 5.2
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 13
Weighted model 61.5%
Pure crowd 61.5%
Market favourite 76.9%

Steve Garcia vs David Onama

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 225.66
ROI Momentum -6.26
Underdog Specialist 0.58
Favorite Reliability 100.7
Weight-Class Ace 13.07
Regional Familiarity 37.35
Value Pick Signal 18.2
Sample Size Confidence 185.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.