Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Sep 28, 2025 Past Perth , Australia Australia Total Weight 7084.284
Channels Engaged
426
Predictions Logged
3925
Value Picks Flagged
945
Fight Slots
16
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 3925 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 426 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 945 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Charlie Campbell ROI 1.56x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Tom Nolan vs Charlie Campbell 1.56x ROI
Charlie Campbell weighted 1.0 Market 2.29 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Loma Lookboonmee vs Alexia Thainara 1.33x ROI
Loma Lookboonmee weighted 2.57 Market 16.83 Crowd 2.42
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Tom Nolan vs Evan Elder -0.99x ROI
Evan Elder weighted 29.21 Market 0.49 Crowd 41.67
Regions — Sample —
Tom Nolan vs Evan Elder -0.01x ROI
Tom Nolan weighted 1.04 Market 0.51 Crowd 1.02
Regions — Sample —
Tom Nolan vs Charlie Campbell 0.38x ROI
Tom Nolan weighted — Market 1.61 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 75.0%
Pure crowd 75.0%
Market favourite 83.3%

Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 1076.93
ROI Momentum -39.07
Underdog Specialist -5.76
Favorite Reliability 415.63
Weight-Class Ace 61.41
Regional Familiarity 268.95
Value Pick Signal 470.4
Sample Size Confidence 910.8

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.