Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Sep 06, 2025 Past Paris , France France Total Weight 5598.645
Channels Engaged
390
Predictions Logged
3044
Value Picks Flagged
754
Fight Slots
16
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 3044 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 390 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 754 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Harry Hardwick ROI 1.62x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Harry Hardwick vs Kauê Fernandes 1.62x ROI
Harry Hardwick weighted 1.0 Market 2.62 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Farès Ziam vs Kauê Fernandes 1.23x ROI
Kauê Fernandes weighted 1.95 Market 3.52 Crowd 2.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Harry Hardwick vs Kauê Fernandes 0.33x ROI
Kauê Fernandes weighted — Market 1.5 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Farès Ziam vs Kauê Fernandes 0.71x ROI
Farès Ziam weighted 2.06 Market 1.29 Crowd 2.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Rhys McKee vs Axel Sola 0.75x ROI
Axel Sola weighted 3.08 Market 1.73 Crowd 3.19
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 13
Weighted model 53.8%
Pure crowd 53.8%
Market favourite 61.5%

Nassourdine Imavov vs Caio Borralho

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 871.61
ROI Momentum -33.4
Underdog Specialist -9.89
Favorite Reliability 351.51
Weight-Class Ace 89.81
Regional Familiarity 201.0
Value Pick Signal 351.4
Sample Size Confidence 732.6

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.