Event Selector

UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Oct 25, 2025 Past Abu Dhabi , United Arab Emirates United Arab Emirates Total Weight 4923.487
Channels Engaged
352
Predictions Logged
2633
Value Picks Flagged
284
Fight Slots
14
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 2633 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 352 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 284 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge — Waiting for openings
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
No positive edges detected.
Market Heat
Jaqueline Amorim vs Mizuki Inoue 0.82x ROI
Mizuki Inoue weighted 15.71 Market 4.16 Crowd 19.17
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Virna Jandiroba vs Mackenzie Dern 0.83x ROI
Mackenzie Dern weighted 2.27 Market 1.63 Crowd 2.47
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Valter Walker vs Louie Sutherland 0.83x ROI
Louie Sutherland weighted 13.48 Market 4.1 Crowd 11.2
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 41.7%
Pure crowd 58.3%
Market favourite 58.3%

Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 850.75
ROI Momentum -27.39
Underdog Specialist -7.53
Favorite Reliability 387.3
Weight-Class Ace 59.31
Regional Familiarity 196.35
Value Pick Signal 114.1
Sample Size Confidence 717.6

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.