Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: de Ridder vs. Allen

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Oct 18, 2025 Past Vancouver , British Columbia , Canada Canada Total Weight 4060.917
Channels Engaged
258
Predictions Logged
2235
Value Picks Flagged
186
Fight Slots
13
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 2235 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 258 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 186 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.14 Reinier de Ridder ROI 1.18x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Reinier de Ridder vs Brendan Allen 1.18x ROI
Reinier de Ridder weighted 1.14 Market 1.44 Crowd 1.15
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Reinier de Ridder vs Brendan Allen 0.76x ROI
Brendan Allen weighted 8.04 Market 2.76 Crowd 7.5
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Azamat Bekoev vs Yousri Belgaroui 0.83x ROI
Yousri Belgaroui weighted 8.27 Market 3.4 Crowd 7.41
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Danny Barlow vs Djorden Ribeiro dos Santos 0.86x ROI
Djorden Ribeiro dos Santos weighted 5.46 Market 3.11 Crowd 5.6
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 13
Weighted model 46.2%
Pure crowd 30.8%
Market favourite 53.8%

Reinier de Ridder vs Brendan Allen

Market Snapshot

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Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 670.48
ROI Momentum -17.57
Underdog Specialist 8.65
Favorite Reliability 297.58
Weight-Class Ace 75.47
Regional Familiarity 150.0
Value Pick Signal 74.9
Sample Size Confidence 566.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.