Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Taira vs. Park

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Aug 02, 2025 Past Las Vegas, Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 1319.291
Channels Engaged
67
Predictions Logged
622
Value Picks Flagged
112
Fight Slots
16
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 622 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 67 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 112 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Piera Rodríguez ROI 1.29x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Piera Rodríguez vs Ketlen Souza 1.29x ROI
Piera Rodríguez weighted 1.0 Market 1.42 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Karol Rosa vs Nora Cornolle 1.25x ROI
Nora Cornolle weighted 1.46 Market 2.29 Crowd 1.43
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Piera Rodríguez vs Ketlen Souza 0.66x ROI
Ketlen Souza weighted — Market 2.91 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Karol Rosa vs Nora Cornolle 0.69x ROI
Karol Rosa weighted 3.2 Market 1.61 Crowd 3.3
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Amir Albazi vs Tatsuro Taira 0.86x ROI
Amir Albazi weighted 5.26 Market 3.07 Crowd 4.67
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 75.0%
Pure crowd 75.0%
Market favourite 83.3%

Amir Albazi vs Tatsuro Taira

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 255.85
ROI Momentum -5.52
Underdog Specialist -0.01
Favorite Reliability 103.61
Weight-Class Ace 18.01
Regional Familiarity 43.2
Value Pick Signal 70.35
Sample Size Confidence 211.8

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.