Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Teixeira

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Jul 12, 2025 Past Nashville , Tennessee , U.S. U S Total Weight 2675.372
Channels Engaged
151
Predictions Logged
1348
Value Picks Flagged
237
Fight Slots
14
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 1348 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 151 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 237 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge — Waiting for openings
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
No positive edges detected.
Market Heat
Ateba Abega Gautier vs Robert Valentin 0.17x ROI
Ateba Abega Gautier weighted — Market 1.21 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Nate Landwehr vs Morgan Charrière 0.28x ROI
Morgan Charrière weighted — Market 1.38 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Nate Landwehr vs Morgan Charrière 0.67x ROI
Nate Landwehr weighted — Market 3.0 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 11
Weighted model 72.7%
Pure crowd 81.8%
Market favourite 63.6%

Derrick Lewis vs Tallison Teixeira

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 466.19
ROI Momentum -10.2
Underdog Specialist 1.76
Favorite Reliability 204.49
Weight-Class Ace 23.77
Regional Familiarity 99.0
Value Pick Signal 152.95
Sample Size Confidence 389.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.