Event Selector

UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Jul 12, 2020 Past Total Weight 248.487
Channels Engaged
8
Predictions Logged
97
Value Picks Flagged
29
Fight Slots
13
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 97 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 8 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 29 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Martin Day ROI 1.37x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Davey Grant vs Martin Day 1.37x ROI
Martin Day weighted 1.0 Market 1.59 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Makwan Amirkhani vs Danny Henry 1.33x ROI
Makwan Amirkhani weighted 1.0 Market 1.5 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Davey Grant vs Martin Day 0.58x ROI
Davey Grant weighted — Market 2.37 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Makwan Amirkhani vs Danny Henry 0.61x ROI
Danny Henry weighted — Market 2.58 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Rose Namajunas vs Jéssica Andrade 0.86x ROI
Jéssica Andrade weighted 4.29 Market 2.67 Crowd 4.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 13
Weighted model 92.3%
Pure crowd 92.3%
Market favourite 46.2%

Kamaru Usman vs Jorge Masvidal

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 62.98
ROI Momentum -1.49
Underdog Specialist -0.47
Favorite Reliability 21.68
Weight-Class Ace 2.14
Value Pick Signal 15.05
Sample Size Confidence 51.6

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.