Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Aug 08, 2020 Past Total Weight 189.641
Channels Engaged
6
Predictions Logged
75
Value Picks Flagged
15
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 75 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 6 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 15 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Chris Weidman ROI 1.4x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Chris Weidman vs Omari Akhmedov 1.4x ROI
Chris Weidman weighted 1.0 Market 1.66 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Andrew Sanchez vs Wellington Turman 1.39x ROI
Wellington Turman weighted 1.0 Market 1.65 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Beneil Dariush vs Scott Holtzman 1.31x ROI
Beneil Dariush weighted 1.0 Market 1.45 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Andrew Sanchez vs Wellington Turman 0.55x ROI
Andrew Sanchez weighted — Market 2.22 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Chris Weidman vs Omari Akhmedov 0.56x ROI
Omari Akhmedov weighted — Market 2.26 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Beneil Dariush vs Scott Holtzman 0.64x ROI
Scott Holtzman weighted — Market 2.81 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 83.3%
Pure crowd 91.7%
Market favourite 16.7%

Derrick Lewis vs Aleksei Oleinik

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 46.59
ROI Momentum -1.05
Underdog Specialist -0.68
Favorite Reliability 13.75
Weight-Class Ace 5.39
Value Pick Signal 12.25
Sample Size Confidence 38.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.