Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Munhoz vs. Edgar

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Aug 22, 2020 Past Total Weight 102.523
Channels Engaged
5
Predictions Logged
40
Value Picks Flagged
2
Fight Slots
9
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 40 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 5 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 2 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Frankie Edgar ROI 1.69x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Frankie Edgar vs Pedro Munhoz 1.69x ROI
Frankie Edgar weighted 1.0 Market 3.27 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Joe Solecki vs Austin Hubbard 1.46x ROI
Austin Hubbard weighted 1.0 Market 1.86 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Shana Dobson vs Mariya Agapova 0.06x ROI
Mariya Agapova weighted — Market 1.07 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Frankie Edgar vs Pedro Munhoz 0.25x ROI
Pedro Munhoz weighted — Market 1.34 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Joe Solecki vs Austin Hubbard 0.48x ROI
Joe Solecki weighted — Market 1.94 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 7
Weighted model 71.4%
Pure crowd 71.4%
Market favourite 28.6%

Frankie Edgar vs Pedro Munhoz

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 24.82
ROI Momentum -0.22
Underdog Specialist -0.31
Favorite Reliability 9.9
Weight-Class Ace 1.29
Value Pick Signal 6.65
Sample Size Confidence 20.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.