Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Oct 11, 2020 Past Total Weight 330.313
Channels Engaged
8
Predictions Logged
126
Value Picks Flagged
42
Fight Slots
13
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 126 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 8 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 42 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.17 Omar Morales ROI 1.25x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Giga Chikadze vs Omar Morales 1.25x ROI
Omar Morales weighted 1.17 Market 1.64 Crowd 1.2
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Marcin Tybura vs Ben Rothwell 1.22x ROI
Ben Rothwell weighted 1.24 Market 1.72 Crowd 1.33
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Chris Daukaus vs Rodrigo Nascimento 1.14x ROI
Chris Daukaus weighted 2.14 Market 3.01 Crowd 2.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Giga Chikadze vs Omar Morales 0.7x ROI
Giga Chikadze weighted 6.99 Market 2.28 Crowd 6.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Marcin Tybura vs Ben Rothwell 0.72x ROI
Marcin Tybura weighted 5.12 Market 2.13 Crowd 4.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Chris Daukaus vs Rodrigo Nascimento 0.81x ROI
Rodrigo Nascimento weighted 1.88 Market 1.39 Crowd 2.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 13
Weighted model 61.5%
Pure crowd 76.9%
Market favourite 15.4%

Cory Sandhagen vs Marlon Moraes

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 81.05
ROI Momentum -0.75
Underdog Specialist -0.75
Favorite Reliability 27.71
Weight-Class Ace 4.91
Value Pick Signal 25.55
Sample Size Confidence 66.6

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.