Event Selector

UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Nov 21, 2020 Past Total Weight 281.251
Channels Engaged
8
Predictions Logged
110
Value Picks Flagged
27
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 110 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 8 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 27 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.41 Katlyn Chookagian ROI 1.37x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Katlyn Chookagian vs Cynthia Calvillo 1.37x ROI
Katlyn Chookagian weighted 1.41 Market 2.95 Crowd 1.33
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Nicolas Dalby vs Daniel Rodriguez 1.25x ROI
Nicolas Dalby weighted 1.88 Market 3.57 Crowd 1.67
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Kyle Daukaus vs Dustin Stoltzfus 1.23x ROI
Kyle Daukaus weighted 1.0 Market 1.3 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Katlyn Chookagian vs Cynthia Calvillo 0.58x ROI
Cynthia Calvillo weighted 3.41 Market 1.4 Crowd 4.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Nicolas Dalby vs Daniel Rodriguez 0.69x ROI
Daniel Rodriguez weighted 2.13 Market 1.29 Crowd 2.5
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Kyle Daukaus vs Dustin Stoltzfus 0.71x ROI
Dustin Stoltzfus weighted — Market 3.48 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 75.0%
Pure crowd 75.0%
Market favourite 66.7%

Deiveson Figueiredo vs Alex Perez

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 70.81
ROI Momentum -0.04
Underdog Specialist -0.41
Favorite Reliability 31.31
Weight-Class Ace 1.23
Value Pick Signal 10.15
Sample Size Confidence 58.2

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.