Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Chiesa vs. Magny

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Jan 20, 2021 Past [ 211 ] [ 211 ] Total Weight 296.924
Channels Engaged
8
Predictions Logged
113
Value Picks Flagged
18
Fight Slots
14
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 113 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 8 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 18 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Mounir Lazzez ROI 1.29x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Warlley Alves vs Mounir Lazzez 1.29x ROI
Mounir Lazzez weighted 1.0 Market 1.41 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Warlley Alves vs Mounir Lazzez 0.66x ROI
Warlley Alves weighted — Market 2.95 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Mike Davis vs Mason Jones 0.71x ROI
Mike Davis weighted 3.01 Market 1.62 Crowd 3.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Lerone Murphy vs Douglas Silva de Andrade 0.72x ROI
Douglas Silva de Andrade weighted — Market 3.52 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 14
Weighted model 64.3%
Pure crowd 71.4%
Market favourite 42.9%

Michael Chiesa vs Neil Magny

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 73.18
ROI Momentum -0.17
Underdog Specialist 0.47
Favorite Reliability 24.17
Weight-Class Ace 3.39
Regional Familiarity 15.45
Value Pick Signal 8.05
Sample Size Confidence 59.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.