Event Selector

UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor 2

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Jan 24, 2021 Past Abu Dhabi , United Arab Emirates United Arab Emirates Total Weight 205.778
Channels Engaged
7
Predictions Logged
75
Value Picks Flagged
16
Fight Slots
11
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 75 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 7 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 16 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.19 Sara McMann ROI 1.29x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Julianna Peña vs Sara McMann 1.29x ROI
Sara McMann weighted 1.19 Market 1.8 Crowd 1.25
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Julianna Peña vs Sara McMann 0.67x ROI
Julianna Peña weighted 6.27 Market 2.02 Crowd 5.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Joanne Calderwood vs Jessica Eye 0.78x ROI
Jessica Eye weighted 3.62 Market 2.03 Crowd 3.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Marcin Prachnio vs Khalil Rountree Jr. 0.8x ROI
Khalil Rountree Jr. weighted 1.73 Market 1.28 Crowd 2.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 11
Weighted model 45.5%
Pure crowd 54.5%
Market favourite 45.5%

Dustin Poirier vs Conor McGregor

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 47.51
ROI Momentum -0.6
Underdog Specialist -0.64
Favorite Reliability 20.45
Weight-Class Ace 7.15
Regional Familiarity 11.25
Value Pick Signal 6.65
Sample Size Confidence 39.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.