Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Feb 06, 2021 Past Total Weight 273.119
Channels Engaged
8
Predictions Logged
104
Value Picks Flagged
28
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 104 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 8 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 28 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.15 Karol Rosa ROI 1.2x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Karol Rosa vs Joselyne Edwards 1.2x ROI
Karol Rosa weighted 1.15 Market 1.48 Crowd 1.2
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Alexandre Pantoja vs Manel Kape 1.16x ROI
Alexandre Pantoja weighted 1.46 Market 1.9 Crowd 1.5
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Karol Rosa vs Joselyne Edwards 0.75x ROI
Joselyne Edwards weighted 7.82 Market 2.66 Crowd 6.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Alexandre Pantoja vs Manel Kape 0.79x ROI
Manel Kape weighted 3.18 Market 1.91 Crowd 3.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Clay Guida vs Michael Johnson 0.81x ROI
Michael Johnson weighted 1.99 Market 1.45 Crowd 2.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 66.7%
Pure crowd 66.7%
Market favourite 66.7%

Alexander Volkov vs Alistair Overeem

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 66.34
ROI Momentum -0.4
Underdog Specialist 0.02
Favorite Reliability 31.38
Weight-Class Ace 3.43
Value Pick Signal 14.35
Sample Size Confidence 54.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.