Event Selector

UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Feb 13, 2021 Past Total Weight 240.165
Channels Engaged
9
Predictions Logged
90
Value Picks Flagged
30
Fight Slots
10
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 90 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 9 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 30 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.76 Anthony Hernandez ROI 1.35x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Anthony Hernandez vs Rodolfo Vieira 1.35x ROI
Anthony Hernandez weighted 1.76 Market 4.54 Crowd 2.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Kelvin Gastelum vs Ian Heinisch 1.32x ROI
Kelvin Gastelum weighted 1.0 Market 1.47 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Polyana Viana vs Mallory Martin 1.31x ROI
Mallory Martin weighted 1.19 Market 1.88 Crowd 1.17
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Anthony Hernandez vs Rodolfo Vieira 0.6x ROI
Rodolfo Vieira weighted 2.31 Market 1.19 Crowd 2.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Kelvin Gastelum vs Ian Heinisch 0.64x ROI
Ian Heinisch weighted — Market 2.74 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Polyana Viana vs Mallory Martin 0.65x ROI
Polyana Viana weighted 6.15 Market 1.93 Crowd 7.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 10
Weighted model 80.0%
Pure crowd 70.0%
Market favourite 80.0%

Kamaru Usman vs Gilbert Burns

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 59.76
ROI Momentum -0.15
Underdog Specialist -0.16
Favorite Reliability 25.5
Weight-Class Ace 4.02
Value Pick Signal 12.6
Sample Size Confidence 48.6

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.