Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Mar 13, 2021 Past Total Weight 320.618
Channels Engaged
8
Predictions Logged
125
Value Picks Flagged
39
Fight Slots
13
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 125 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 8 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 39 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Angela Hill ROI 1.24x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Angela Hill vs Ashley Yoder 1.24x ROI
Angela Hill weighted 1.0 Market 1.31 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Davey Grant vs Jonathan Martinez 1.24x ROI
Jonathan Martinez weighted 1.0 Market 1.31 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Davey Grant vs Jonathan Martinez 0.71x ROI
Davey Grant weighted — Market 3.42 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Angela Hill vs Ashley Yoder 0.71x ROI
Ashley Yoder weighted — Market 3.49 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Dan Ige vs Gavin Tucker 0.77x ROI
Dan Ige weighted 2.58 Market 1.63 Crowd 2.67
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 11
Weighted model 45.5%
Pure crowd 45.5%
Market favourite 36.4%

Leon Edwards vs Belal Muhammad

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 83.16
ROI Momentum -0.39
Favorite Reliability 24.68
Weight-Class Ace 2.52
Value Pick Signal 17.85
Sample Size Confidence 67.8

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.