Event Selector

UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou 2

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Mar 27, 2021 Past Total Weight 207.214
Channels Engaged
7
Predictions Logged
79
Value Picks Flagged
20
Fight Slots
10
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 79 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 7 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 20 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Michał Oleksiejczuk ROI 1.36x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Michał Oleksiejczuk vs Modestas Bukauskas 1.36x ROI
Michał Oleksiejczuk weighted 1.0 Market 1.57 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Abubakar Nurmagomedov vs Jared Gooden 1.27x ROI
Jared Gooden weighted 1.63 Market 2.95 Crowd 1.5
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Michał Oleksiejczuk vs Modestas Bukauskas 0.59x ROI
Modestas Bukauskas weighted — Market 2.43 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Abubakar Nurmagomedov vs Jared Gooden 0.67x ROI
Abubakar Nurmagomedov weighted 2.58 Market 1.4 Crowd 3.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Sean O'Malley vs Thomas Almeida 0.72x ROI
Thomas Almeida weighted — Market 3.55 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 10
Weighted model 60.0%
Pure crowd 70.0%
Market favourite 80.0%

Francis Ngannou vs Stipe Miocic

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 51.57
ROI Momentum -1.04
Underdog Specialist -1.1
Favorite Reliability 20.34
Weight-Class Ace 2.54
Value Pick Signal 13.3
Sample Size Confidence 42.6

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.